Financial Projections for Next Quarter (Q2 FY'25)
Introduction
Based on historical data, management guidance, and recent developments, we have prepared financial projections for Olectra Greentech Ltd. for Q2 FY'25. These projections are built on reasonable assumptions aligned with the company's operational trends and industry outlook.
1. Basis for Projections
A. Historical Financial Performance
- Q1 FY'25 Revenue: ₹313.9 crore (45% YoY growth)
- Electric Buses Delivered: 156 units
- Management's Guidance: Expecting to double Q1 deliveries in Q2
B. Recent Developments
- Production Capacity: Current capacity at 200 buses/month; plans to ramp up to 5,000 buses/month by year-end
- Order Book: Robust net order book of 10,818 electric buses
- Credit Rating Outlook: ICRA revised outlook from 'Stable' to 'Negative'
2. Assumptions for Q2 FY'25 Projections
A. Sales Volume
- Projected Deliveries: 312 units (156 units × 2)
B. Revenue per Bus
- Average Revenue per Bus: ₹1.811 crore (assumed constant)
C. Total Revenue Projection
- Electric Bus Revenue: 312 units × ₹1.811 crore = ₹565.03 crore
- Other Revenue: ₹56.50 crore (assuming 80% growth)
- Total Projected Revenue: ₹621.53 crore
D. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
- Gross Profit Margin: Assumed at 25%
- Gross Profit: ₹155.38 crore
- COGS: ₹466.15 crore
E. Operating Expenses
- Projected Operating Expenses: ₹56.97 crore (50% increase from Q1)
F. EBITDA Projection
- EBITDA: ₹98.41 crore
- EBITDA Margin: 15.83%
G. Depreciation and Amortization
- Projected Depreciation: ₹11 crore (10% increase)
H. EBIT (Operating Profit)
I. Interest Expense
- New Term Loan Interest: ₹10 crore
- Total Interest Expense: ₹28.7 crore
J. Profit Before Tax (PBT)
K. Tax Expense
- Tax (25% rate): ₹14.68 crore
L. Profit After Tax (PAT)
3. Summary of Projected Financials for Q2 FY'25
| Item |
Q1 FY'25 Actuals (₹ crore) |
Q2 FY'25 Projections (₹ crore) |
% Change QoQ |
| Revenue |
313.9 |
621.53 |
98% |
| Gross Profit |
78.48 (Assumed) |
155.38 |
98% |
| EBITDA |
50.5 |
98.41 |
95% |
| EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.1% |
15.83% |
- |
| Profit Before Tax (PBT) |
31.8 |
58.71 |
85% |
| Profit After Tax (PAT) |
23.85 |
44.03 |
85% |
| PAT Margin (%) |
7.6% |
7.08% |
- |
4. Key Insights and Considerations
- Significant Revenue Growth: Projected revenue nearly doubles QoQ.
- Stable Margins: EBITDA margin remains relatively stable.
- Increased Interest Expense: New term loan impacts net profitability.
- Profitability Improvement: PAT projected to increase by 85% QoQ.
- Economies of Scale: Operating expenses grow at a lower rate than revenue.
5. Assumptions and Risks
Assumptions
- Deliveries double as per management guidance.
- Average revenue per bus remains constant.
- Operating expenses are controlled.
- Interest rates remain stable.
Risks
- Production challenges may affect deliveries.
- Supply chain constraints could hinder production.
- Market dynamics may impact sales volumes or pricing.
- Financial risks due to negative credit rating outlook.
6. Conclusion
Olectra Greentech Ltd. is projected to experience significant growth in revenue and profitability in Q2 FY'25. The company's ability to scale up production and meet delivery targets is critical. Monitoring potential risks is essential to ensure performance aligns with projections.
Disclaimer: This financial projection is based on historical data, management guidance, and recent developments. Actual results may differ due to various factors. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.